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NZ Labour-Greens extend lead over opposition parties as New Zealand enters nationwide Stage 4 lockdown in August

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – August 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government increased 2% points to 51.5% in August although support for the Labour Party was unchanged at 39.5%. The increase was driven by rising support for the Greens which was up 2% points to 12% in August.

The governing parties are now 11% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 40.5%, down 4% points since July. The drop was due to a loss in support for National which was down 4% points to 25%, the lowest since March. Support for Act NZ was unchanged at a record high of 13% while support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2.5%.

A small minority of 8% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party down 1% point to 2% and support for NZ First up 0.5% points to 2.5% in August.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 940 electors during August. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed a larger than usual 7%, up 2.5% points, didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 6pts to pandemic low of 115 in August

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 6pts in August to 115 – the lowest it has been since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.

In August a slim majority of 52.5% (down 3% points) of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to over a third, 37.5% (up 3% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – the highest figure for this indicator since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.

The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down by 3.5pts to 109.6 in August but is still well above the corresponding Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 101.6 on August 21/22, 2021 as that country battles extensive outbreaks of COVID-19 in Sydney and Melbourne.

Massive ‘Gender gap’ as Women favour Labour-Greens and men favour National-Act NZ

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies with the massive edge in support that the Labour Party receives from women. A large majority of 60.5% of women support either Labour (48%) or the Greens (12.5%) compared to only 42.5% of men supporting either Labour (31%) or the Greens (11.5%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 17% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among women.

Men are more likely to support the Parliamentary opposition with a large plurality of 47.5% supporting either National (28%), Act NZ (17.5%) or the Maori Party (2%) compared to only a third, 33%, of Women supporting either National (21.5%), Act NZ (8.5%) or the Maori Party (3%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 120 for Women compared to 109.5 for men

The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 53% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% of men but only 33% of women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 42% of men.

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 120 for women compared to only 109.5 for men – a gap of 10.5 points.

Party vote analysis by Gender

Total

Men

Women

%

%

%

Labour

39.5

31

48

Greens

12

11.5

12.5

Labour/Greens

51.5

42.5

60.5

National

25

28

21.5

Act NZ

13

17.5

8.5

Maori Party

2.5

2

3

National/Act NZ/ Maori Party

40.5

47.5

33

Others

8

10

6.5

Total

100

100

100

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

Right Direction

52.5

51.5

53

Wrong Direction

37.5

42

33

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating*

115

109.5

120

Can’t say

10

6.5

14

Total

100

100

100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the slow roll-out of vaccinations around New Zealand is causing headaches for millions of Kiwis at present with the entire country entering a Stage 4 lockdown in mid-August which is set to continue well into September:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the Labour-led Government has the support of 51.5% of New Zealand electors in August, up 2% points from July. Although Labour Party support is unchanged at 39.5%, support for the Greens is up 2% points to 12% in August.

“Support for the Parliamentary Opposition was down by 4% points to 40.5% in August with the main Opposition National losing 4% points to 25%. Support for Act NZ is unchanged at a record high 13% with the Maori Party again on 2.5%.

“The slow pace of New Zealand’s vaccine rollout ran into the highly contagious Delta variant of COVID-19 in mid-August and in response to an outbreak in Auckland the entire country was forced into a nation-wide lockdown on August 17.

“The size of the latest outbreak is growing and with over 200 active cases the current lockdown is set to continue well into September. The experience across the Tasman in both Sydney and Melbourne shows that stopping the spread of this latest variant is proving far harder than for the earlier variants.

“Although the results for August show the current outbreak has yet to hurt the Government’s political standing the longer it continues the questions about the slow-rate of the vaccination rollout will mount.

“The first impact from the slow vaccination rollout and resultant nation-wide lockdown can be seen in the fourth straight monthly decline in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating, down 6pts to 115. Roy Morgan Government Confidence has now dropped by a significant 38.5pts since December 2020 while the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence is down 3.5pts to 109.6 in August – its lowest since November 2020.

“An enduring feature of the latest results is the continuing ‘gender gap’ between the two sides of politics. Women’s support for the Labour-Greens government remains strong with a majority of 60.5% supporting either Labour (48%) or the Greens (12.5%) compared to only 42.5% of men who support either Labour (31%) or the Greens (11.5%).

“In contrast, a plurality of men support the Parliamentary Opposition (47.5%) with well over a quarter supporting National (28%) and nearly one-in-five supporting either Act NZ (17.5%) or the Maori Party (2%).

“Overall, the ‘gender gaps’ are currently working in favour of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. The Labour-Greens government enjoys an 18% ‘gender gap’ in their favour amongst Women whereas the ‘gender gap’ in favour of National-Act NZ amongst men is a smaller 15.5%.

“The course of the current outbreak in Auckland will have a big impact on the economy as long as New Zealand’s largest city remains locked down. The political implications are less clear but the longer the lockdown continues the more questions will be raised about the Government’s handling of the vaccine rollout and their strategy for dealing with so-called ‘COVID-normal’ when vaccination targets are met later this year.”


New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – August 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition


Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – August 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – August 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE

Labour

Green Party*

National

ACT NZ

Maori Party**

TOP**

NZ First

Other

ELECTIONS

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

October 12, 1996*

28.19

10.10

33.87

6.10

n/a

n/a

13.35

8.39

November 27, 1999

38.74

5.16

30.50

7.04

n/a

n/a

4.26

14.30

July 27, 2002

41.26

7.00

20.93

7.14

n/a

n/a

10.38

13.29

September 17, 2005

41.10

5.30

39.10

1.51

2.12

n/a

5.72

5.15

November 8, 2008

33.99

6.72

44.93

3.65

2.39

n/a

4.07

4.25

November 26, 2011

27.48

11.06

47.31

1.07

1.43

n/a

6.59

5.06

September 20, 2014  

25.13

10.70

47.04

0.69

1.32

n/a

8.66

6.46

September 23, 2017

36.89

6.27

44.45

0.50

1.18

2.44

7.20

1.07

October 17, 2020

50.01

7.86

25.58

7.59

1.17

1.51

2.60

3.70

ROY MORGAN POLL

March 2020

42.5

11.5

37

3.5

0.5

1

3

1

April 2020

55

7

30.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

2.5

0.5

May 2020

56.5

7

26.5

3.5

1.5

1

2.5

1.5

June 2020

54.5

9

27

5

1

1.5

1.5

0.5

July 2020

53.5

8

26.5

6.5

0.5

1.5

1.5

2

August 2020

48

11.5

28.5

6

0.5

1

2.5

2

September 2020

47.5

9.5

28.5

7

0.5

1.5

2.5

3

NZ Election 2020

50

7.9

25.6

7.6

1.2

1.5

2.6

3.7

November 2020

44

12.5

25.5

10.5

1

2

1.5

3

December 2020

44

10.5

28

10

2

2

2

1.5

January 2021

47

11.5

25

9

2

1.5

2

2

February 2021

45

13.5

29

7.5

1

1

1.5

1.5

March 2021

45.5

12

23

11

1

2

2.5

3

April 2021

41.5

13.5

29.5

9

2.5

0.5

1

2.5

May 2021

45

11

28.5

9

1.5

1.5

2

1.5

June 2021

38.5

12.5

29.5

11.5

2.5

2

1.5

2

July 2021

39.5

10

29

13

2.5

3

2

1

August 2021

39.5

12

25

13

2.5

2

2.5

3.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.


Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)

NZ Election, October 17, 2020*

57.87

34.33

ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL

Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020

November 2020

56.5

37

December 2020

54.5

40

2021

January 2021

58.5

36

February 2021

58.5

37.5

March 2021

57.5

35

April 2021

55

41

May 2021

56

39

June 2021

51

43.5

July 2021

49.5

44.5

August 2021

51.5

40.5

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).
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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2