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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down by 2.3pts to 110.8 in March

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down by 2.3pts to 110.8 in March, stopping slightly short of its historical average of 120.

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down by 2.3pts to 110.8 in March, stopping slightly short of its historical average of 120.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, fell 6 points.
  • Inflation expectations eased slightly, as did house price inflation expectations.
Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current financial situations lifted 5 points to +3%.

  • A net 30% expect to be better off this time next year, up 3.

  • A net 14% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, down 6 points. This is the single best retail indicator in the survey.

  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 9 points to -7%. The five-year outlook dropped 5 points to +15%.

  • House price inflation expectations eased 1.4%pts to 6.1%, still a historically very high level. They fell in every region (by the most in the regional North Island), and range from 5.3% in the South Island excluding Canterbury to 6.7% in Auckland.

  • CPI inflation expectations eased 0.6%pts to 4.0%, still quite a high read but a significant step towards more normal levels than have been seen in recent months.

Household house price expectations appear to have peaked, as we predicted last month. Recent policy changes may see them retreat more quickly, though we’ll never be able to disentangle the impact from what would have happened regardless.

Households have recently been much warier about buying a major household item than their exceptionally strong house price inflation expectations would suggest they ‘should’ be. Their self-reported enthusiasm on this front has historically been the best retail spending indicator in the survey. But retail spending has recently overshot, reflecting repurposed holiday savings, a catch-up from lockdown, the housing boom and interest-free deals. But it is unlikely to last as the first three of these drivers fade.


Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2