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Calm before the storm? Indonesian Consumer Confidence high in February before COVID-19 coronavirus hit the archipelago

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,287 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in February throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.
In February 2020 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence remained high at 159.0 (down just 2pts from January). This is virtually unchanged on a year ago in February 2019 (159.5) and is a significant 21pts above the long-term average (2005-2020) of 138.0.

The first confirmed case of the COVID-19 coronavirus in Indonesia was on Monday March 2, 2020.

The 2pt month-on-month decrease in Consumer Confidence was driven by a 4ppt fall in Indonesians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items – down to 64%.

Despite the small fall in February Consumer Confidence in Indonesia is far higher than in neighbouring Australia (108.4 in February and now down to 100.0 in early March) and also New Zealand at 122.1 before the full impact of the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic became apparent.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence decreased by 2pts to 159.0 in February on a month by month basis with interviewing completed before the first documented case of coronavirus COVID-19 emerged in Indonesia in early March,” said Ira Soekirman, Director of Roy Morgan Indonesia.

Since early March COVID-19 has spread worldwide and the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic on Wednesday March 11. There have since been over 500 cases documented in Indonesia and substantial travel bans have been instituted for many countries worldwide and throughout the Asia-Pacific region.

The pandemic will cause significant economic dislocation over the next few months as policies of self-isolation and the closing down of many businesses provide a huge negative shock to economies worldwide. The response of President Joko Widodo and his government to this developing crisis will prove to be a defining moment in a Presidency that has thus far been very well regarded by many,”  said Ms. Soekirman.

Indonesian vs. Australian vs. New Zealand Consumer Confidence: 2008-2020

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source in Australia, Indonesia & New Zealand. 2008-2020.
Base: Australians aged 14+, New Zealanders aged 14+ and Indonesians aged 14+.


Long-term Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence: 2010-2020

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ February 2020 (n=1,287).

February drop driven by fall that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items

Analysis of the latest consumer confidence compared to a month ago shows the decrease is driven by a fall in confidence that now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.

In February a declining majority of 64% (down 4ppts) of Indonesians say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 32% (up 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Now 39% (unchanged) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago while 9% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

However an increasing majority of 68% (up 1ppt) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and an extremely low 4% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In addition an unchanged majority of 91% of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 9% (also unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

Looking at the longer term, 93% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 6% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.

Comparing Indonesian Consumer Confidence with the longer-term, the current rating is a significant 21pts above the long-run average (2005-2020) of 138.0.

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,287 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in February throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia March 14/15, 2020 – 100.0) and New Zealand
(February 2020 – 122.1); long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.


For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0



About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2