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Looking beyond the panic-buying, Australia’s big supermarket story is Aldi’s growing market share

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, January 2019 – December 2019, n = 11,045.
Base: Australian grocery buyers aged 14+ (weighted to Australian households).

Currently every mention of supermarkets in Australia is accompanied by images of pillaged shelves or reports of police being called to manage surging crowds. But new data in Roy Morgan’s Fresh Food and Grocery Report shows a noteworthy longer-term trend story about changing market share, which has played out over the past 12 months.

Across 2019, Woolworths Group and Coles Group both declined in market share, while Aldi and other smaller chains increased. Aldi not only increased its market share of all supermarket spending, it also recorded strong growth in customer penetration. 

The Fresh Food and Grocery Report shows Woolworths Group had a market share of 32.9% ($34 billion) of the total grocery market, a decrease of 0.7% compared with a year earlier. However it was still ahead of Coles Group on 26.6% (-1.4%) ($27.4 billion), Aldi on 12.4% (+0.6%) ($12.8 billion), Fresh Food Stores on 11.8% (+0.5%) ($12.2 billion), Other Supermarkets on 9.1% (+1.3%) ($9.4 billion) and IGA on 7.3% (-0.1%) ($7.5 billion).

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that although the current Coronavirus shopping frenzy is the news of the day, Aldi’s continued growth is a story that has been building for many years.

“Aldi has increased its market share from 6.7% in 2011, to 12.4% today. While it’s still a fair way behind Australia’s two supermarket giants, to put this growth in perspective, Aldi is now approaching half of the market share held by Coles Group.”

“Aldi’s customer penetration numbers are also growing strongly. The number of people who visit an Aldi store in an average four-week period has surged 8% since a year ago. The number of shoppers visiting other supermarkets – such as Foodworks, Foodland, Drakes, Seven Eleven and Night Owl – has also increased dramatically, rising nearly 21% over the past twelve months.”

“Looking at it state by state, Woolworths, Coles and Aldi claiming the top three positions in New South Wales, Victoria in Queensland. In South Australia, Foodland sits in third position, while in Western Australia IGA is third,”  Ms. Levine said.

The report’s findings are from Roy Morgan Single Source, Australia’s most trusted consumer survey, compiled by in-depth interviews with over 50,000 Australians each year.

Proportion of total grocery market dollars

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, January 2019 – December 2019, n = 11,045. Base: Australian grocery buyers aged 14+ (weighted to Australian households).

Customer penetration data from the Fresh Food and Grocery Report shows Woolworths Group on top with 7,198,000 Australians shopping in store in an average four-week period, up from 6,946,000 (+252,000) twelve months ago. It was followed by Coles Group on 6,337,000 (-70,000), Aldi on 4,193,000 (+309,000), IGA on 3,068,000 (+36,000), Other Supermarkets on 2,902,000 (+500,000) and Fresh Food Stores on 4,755,000 (+142,000).

Grocery market customer penetration (‘000s)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia, January 2019 – December 2019, n = 11,045. Base: Australian grocery buyers aged 14+ (weighted to Australian households).

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2