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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 4.3pts to 113.9 in September

Consumer confidence fell 4 points in September to 114, the lowest read in four years.

Consumer confidence fell 4 points in September to 114, the lowest read in four years.

  • The Current Conditions Index fell 1 point, while the Future Conditions Index fell 6 points.
  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item lifted 2 points to 41%.
  • The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 4 points to 114 in September, led by wariness of the future. The Current Conditions Index fell 1 point to 126, while the Future Conditions Index fell 6 points to 106.



Turning to the detail:
  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation fell 5 points to a net 11% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
  • A net 23% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 4 points versus last month.
  • A net 41% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, up 2.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell a sharp 9 points to a net 10% expecting conditions to worsen, the lowest in four years. The five-year outlook fell 7 points to +4%.
  • Sharp falls in confidence in Wellington (down 10) and Canterbury (down 6) led the drop in the index, but Wellington is nonetheless still the most optimistic region. Confidence fell in every region.
  • House price inflation expectations are now weakest in Auckland (2.0%, down 0.7%pts) and strongest in Wellington (3.8%, up 0.2%pts). General inflation expectations remained in recent ranges at 3.5%.
Consumer confidence fell 4 points in August to 114, below its historical average of 120 and the lowest read in four years. Confidence in both current and future conditions fell, but consumers are particularly wary about what the future may bring.

Despite the fall, one shouldn’t overstate the weakness in consumer sentiment. Households are still feeling pretty robust. Lower interest rates are likely behind the robustness in the proportion of people thinking it is a good time to buy a major household item. The tight labour market is another key support, though employment indicators have deteriorated markedly, so this is a vulnerability going forward.

Our confidence composite gauge combines business expectations and intentions with overall consumer sentiment to capture both the demand and supply side of the economy and give a better indicator for growth than either series alone.

The composite dipped with the fall in consumer confidence, but remains within recent (low) ranges. It is consistent with our view that while the slippage in economic growth is set to continue over the second half of the year as the economy battles headwinds, the fundamentals for the New Zealand economy remain decent.


Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2