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Real unemployment at 9.2% in June as tax cuts set to boost economy

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 633,274 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2019 and includes 3,803 face-to-face interviews in June 2019. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.
The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for June shows:

In June 1.25 million Australians were unemployed (9.2% of the workforce) with an additional 1.28 million (9.4%) now under-employed.

• The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, has increased year-on-year by 201,000 to 13,617,000. The increasing workforce was driven by an increase in both the numbers of employed people and unemployed people.

• Employment was up 118,000 to 12,363,000 in June 2019 and the rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 479,000 to 8,279,000. However, over the past year part-time employment has declined by 361,000 to 4,084,000;

• Unemployment was up 83,000 on a year ago to 1,254,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) The unemployment rate is up by 0.5% to 9.2%;

• An additional 1,275,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) are under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 27,000 in a year (down 0.3%);

• Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.2% for June is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for May 2019 of 5.2%, although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 9.4% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.6%;

• Roy Morgan’s total unemployment and under-employment of 2,529,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) in June, an increase of 56,000 in a year (up 0.2%) seems large but the biennial ABS survey the ‘Barriers and Incentives to Labour Force Participation’ last released in 2017 claims a comparable figure of 2.7 million Australians aged 18+ would like a job or to work more hours – including 1.1 million people the ABS said wanted a job but excluded from the Labour Force.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – June 2019. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says unemployment and under-employment in June of over 2.5 million presents the re-elected L-NP Government with a challenge and an opportunity:

“The latest Roy Morgan employment estimates show that 12,363,000 Australians were employed in June, up 118,000 on a year ago in June 2018. The rise in employment has been driven by an increase in full-time employment, up 479,000 to 8,279,000 although part-time employment is down.

“Although there have been many jobs created over the last year this hasn’t reduced unemployment which has increased by 83,000 to 1,254,000 (9.2% of the workforce) as more people enter the workforce looking for work. An additional 8.4% of the workforce is under-employed comprising 1,275,000 Australians, down 27,000 on a year ago.

“There are many commentators expressing concern about the state of the Australian economy, however with significant income tax cuts being legislated by the new Government and back-to-back interest rate cuts by the RBA in June and July, there is an increasing amount of stimulus in the Australian economy to support businesses and therefore increase employment opportunities.

“Roy Morgan’s key economic indicators are all showing positive trends in recent weeks:

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has had its biggest weekly increase in over a year to 118.9 (up 4.6pts in a week);

• The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence for June has increased to 114.7 – its highest level for over a year following strong gains after reaching a low of 102.9 in April 2019. However while businesses are experiencing optimism for their business and the economy fewer are saying now is a ‘good time to invest’ in their business;

• The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped following the Federal Election by 11.5pts to 104.5 with more Australian electors, 43.5%, saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 39% that say the ‘wrong direction’.

“These measures of consumer and business sentiment show that the public is giving a vote of confidence in the newly re-elected L-NP Government to undertake reforms to ‘revitalise and re-boot’ the Australian economy to power forward over the next few years.”


This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 633,274 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – June 2019 and includes 3,803 face-to-face interviews in June 2019. *The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work.

The Roy Morgan May employment estimates have been revised this month with the addition of a fifth weekend in May to the dataset which provides a more comprehensive view of employment conditions in May than was previously released.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2018

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2018

2,561

18.9

1,246

9.2

626

620

1,314

9.7

Apr-Jun 2018

2,528

18.9

1,228

9.2

589

639

1,301

9.7

Jul-Sep 2018

2,469

18.5

1,354

10.1

631

723

1,115

8.3

Oct-Dec 2018

2,440

18.1

1,286

9.5

559

727

1,154

8.6

2019

Jan-Mar 2019

2,604

19.2

1,345

9.9

635

701

1,229

9.3

Months

April 2018

2,545

19.3

1,196

9.1

561

635

1,349

10.2

May 2018

2,567

19.1

1,316

9.8

627

689

1,251

9.3

June 2018

2,473

18.4

1,171

8.7

578

593

1,302

9.7

July 2018

2,478

18.6

1,329

10.0

581

749

1,148

8.6

August 2018

2,547

19.0

1,476

11.0

700

776

1,071

8.0

September 2018

2,383

17.8

1,256

9.4

611

645

1,127

8.4

October 2018

2,507

18.6

1,265

9.4

501

764

1,242

9.2

November 2018

2,333

17.2

1,291

9.5

578

713

1,042

7.7

December 2018

2,480

18.5

1,302

9.7

599

703

1,178

8.8

January 2019

2,553

18.7

1,253

9.2

597

656

1,300

9.5

February 2019

2,448

18.2

1,292

9.6

606

686

1,156

8.6

March 2019

2,812

20.6

1,491

10.9

731

760

1,321

9.7

April 2019

2,381

17.7

1,202

8.9

599

603

1,179

8.8

May 2019

2,559

18.4

1,325

9.5

674

651

1,234

8.9

June 2019 

2,529 18.6 1,254 9.2 605 649 1,275

9.4

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2019)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2019)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2019)


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA
NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The ABS classifies a person as employed if, when surveyed, a person worked for one hour or more during the reference week for pay, profit, commission or payment in kind, or even if a person worked for one hour or more without pay in a family business or on a farm.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2




About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2