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Three weeks locked at ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% - Palmer “jumps” 1.5%

For the third straight week the two major parties are locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of May 4/5, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors.

For the third straight week the two major parties are locked in a tight contest with a slight edge to the ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% on a two party preferred basis according to a face-to-face Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend of May 4/5, 2019 with a representative cross-section of 826 Australian electors.

The close nature of the tussle between the ALP and L-NP is now raising the possibility Australia will be left with another ‘hung’ Parliament after next week’s Federal Election.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for both major parties fell this week with support increasing for minor parties including Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP), the Greens as well as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation but there was no change to the close overall two-party preferred result with just over a week to go until Election Day – May 18, 2019.

The L-NP now has a primary vote of 38.5% (down 1%) and is clearly ahead of the ALP on 34% (down 2%) while Greens support is up 1.5% to 11%. Support for One Nation is up 1.5% to 4% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is up 1.5% to 3.5%. Support for Independents/Others is down 1.5% to 9%.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has declined by 2.5pts to 99 this week with slightly more Australians say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ than ‘heading in the right direction’.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says:

“The Federal Election has ‘tightened’ during the campaign with the two major parties now locked in a near dead-heat for three straight weeks since mid-April. The ALP on 51% maintains a narrow two-party preferred edge over the L-NP on 49% but with just over a week to go the prospect is rising of Australia electing another ‘hung’ Parliament with neither major party able to form a majority.

“Both parties require a small swing to claim a workable majority of 77 seats in the expanded 151 seat Parliament and with the tight nature of the race it could again be independents and minor party candidates including Dr. Kerryn Phelps, Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter of Katter’s Australian Party, Adam Bandt of the Greens and perhaps Rob Oakeshott in country NSW who may again decide who will be Prime Minister after next week’s election.

“’Troubles’ engulfing Other parties' candidates appear to have helped Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party with a late boost in support approaching the election particularly in Queensland Country – combined support for UAP, One Nation, Katter’s Party and the Conservatives is now clearly over 25%. The rise in support for these minor parties in Queensland Country is set to cost the ALP their only seat in regional Queensland – and may lose some in Brisbane.”

Electors were asked: “At the Federal election for the House of Representatives on May 18 – which party will receive your first preference?? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via face-to-face interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 826 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of May 4/5, 2019. 4.5% of electors can’t say who they support.

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan data, please contact:

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Michele Levine:       

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