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Government Confidence virtually unchanged after Medevac Bill

Finding No. 7893 – These two Morgan Polls on Roy Morgan Government Confidence were conducted via face-to-face interviewing during the month of February. Roy Morgan interviewed 1,673 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019 (pre Medevac Bill) and 1,708 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019 (post Medevac Bill).

Two Roy Morgan Polls conducted in the fortnight before and fortnight after the passage of the controversial Medevac Bill for asylum seekers through Federal Parliament on February 12 show the bill had virtually no impact on overall Government Confidence although there were significant shifts in sentiment when analysing sentiment for different demographics.

Roy Morgan’s Government Confidence Rating slipped 1pt to 90.5 for the fortnight of February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019 with 37% (unchanged) of electors saying Australia is now heading in the ‘right direction’ and 46.5% (up 1%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Government Confidence increases for ALP supporters but slides for Greens supporters

There was little change in the sentiment of L-NP supporters following the passage of the Medevac Bill. L-NP supporters now have a Government Confidence Rating of 110, up 1pt from before the passage of the bill, with 48% (up 2%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 38% (up 1%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

In contrast, there was an increase in Government Confidence for ALP supporters after the passage of the Medevac Bill. The passage of the bill marked the first time a sitting Government had lost a vote in the House of Representatives for 90 years since 1929.

Government Confidence for ALP supporters increased 4.5pts to 94 with 38.5% (up 2%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 44.5% (down 2.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

However, balancing these increases in Government Confidence for both L-NP and ALP supporters there were large declines for Greens’ supporters and supporters of Independents/Others.

Government Confidence for Greens’ supporters dropped 9.5pts to 75 with only 27.5% (down 5.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ while a majority of 52.5% (up 4%) now say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

There was an even bigger decline for supporters of Independents/Others with Government Confidence plummeting to only 53 with just 19.5% (down 5%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 66.5% (up 8%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Government Confidence plunges in regional Australia, but up in metro areas

The passage of the Medevac Bill has not impressed rural and regional Australia with Government Confidence plunging by 8pts to 78 in Country Areas. Now only 31.5% (down 3.5%) of Australians in Country Areas say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and a clear majority of 53.5% (up 4.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

This plunge was not replicated in Australia’s Capital Cities. Now 40.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians in Capital Cities say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 42% (down 1.5%) now say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Government Confidence up for men, but drops for women

Following the passage of the Medevac Bill Government Confidence increased for Australian men by 4.5pts to 98.5 with 42% (up 4%) now saying Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 43.5% (down 0.5%) saying Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

In contrast, Government Confidence for Australian women fell by 6pts to only 83.5. Now just 32.5% (down 3.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and nearly half, 49% (up 2.5%), say Australia is now heading in the ‘wrong direction’.


Government Confidence up strongly for young Australians but down for other age groups

Government Confidence increased for strongly for Australians aged 18-34 years old following the passage of the Medevac Bill, up by 10pts to 107 and now the highest of any age groups. Now 42% (up 3.5%) of Australians aged 18-34 say Australia is heading in the ‘right direction’ and 35% (down 6.5%) say Australia is heading in the ‘wrong direction’.

In contrast to younger Australians, Government Confidence dropped slightly for the three older age groups following the passage of the Medevac Bill.

Government Confidence for Australians aged 35-49 years old dropped 3pts to 97.5, and dropped by 2.5pts to 77 for Australians aged 50-64 years old and for Australians aged 65+ Government Confidence was down 4.5pts to 84.5.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says, the ‘Medevac’ Bill which allows the evacuation of asylum seekers in need of medical care
provoked strong reactions around Australia but the net impact is unlikely to be significant on the Federal election:

“The passage of the controversial ‘Medevac’ Bill in mid-February created a media storm as the Morrision Government lost a vote on the floor of the House of Representatives for the first time. In fact this was the first time any Federal Government had lost a vote on the House of Representatives for 90 years since 1929.

“The ‘Medevac’ Bill allows for asylum seekers in need of medical care to be evacuated from the remote islands such as Nauru and Manus Island on which they are located while their asylum claims are assessed.

“Although the bill was clearly controversial, the net impact on the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has been negligible. Government Confidence slipped only 1pt to 90.5 following the passage of the ‘Medevac’ Bill.

“History shows that a Government Confidence Rating below the neutral level of 100 spells trouble for a Government. In the lead-up to the 2013 Federal Election the final Morgan telephone poll of the campaign showed a Government Confidence Rating of only 99 and a few days later the Rudd Government was roundly defeated at that election.

“The final Morgan Poll prior to the 2016 Federal Election showed the Turnbull Government was in trouble when Government Confidence fell to only 102pts, barely above neutral. The final result of that election was a narrow victory for the Government with a majority of only 1 seat.

“These historical precedents show that the Morrison Government has to do more than be tough on asylum seekers to have a chance at winning this year’s Federal election due in May.

“When Australians are asked to nominate the most important issues they face they consistently – and across the political and demographic spectrum – nominate ‘Keeping day to day living costs down’ (54%) rather than either ‘Managing immigration and population growth’ (17%) or ‘Reducing the number of illegal migrants coming to Australia’ (9%).

“Although appearing ‘tough’ on asylum seekers is popular with the Government’s political base it is unlikely to significantly increase the Government’s political support in the lead-up to the Federal Election.”

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 7893 – These two Morgan Polls on Roy Morgan Government Confidence were conducted via face-to-face interviewing during the month of February. Roy Morgan interviewed 1,673 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019 (pre Medevac Bill) and 1,708 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019 (post Medevac Bill).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Electors

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

37

45.5

91.5

17.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

37

46.5

90.5

16.5

100

Change

-

+1

-1pt

-1

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting Intention

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

L-NP

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

46

37

109

17

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

48

38

110

14

100

Change

+2

+1

+1pt

-3

ALP

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

36.5

47

89.5

16.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

38.5

44.5

94

17

100

Change

+2

-2.5

+4.5pts

+0.5

Greens

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

33

48.5

84.5

18.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

27.5

52.5

75

20

100

Change

-5.5

+4

-9.5pt

+1.5

 

Independents/Others

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

24.5

58.5

66

17

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

19.5

66.5

53

14

100

Change

-5

+8

-13pts

-3

Can’t say

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

31.5

42.5

89

26

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

29

40

89

31

100

Change

-2.5

-2.5

-

+5


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

Region

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Capital Cities

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

38

43.5

94.5

18.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

40.5

42

98.5

17.5

100

Change

+2.5

-1.5

+4pts

-1

Country Areas

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

35

49

86

16

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

31.5

53.5

78

14.5

100

Change

-3.5

+4.5

-8pts

-1.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

State

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

NSW

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

34.5

44.5

90

21

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

40

43.5

96.5

16.5

100

Change

+5.5

-1

+6.5pts

-4.5

Victoria

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

38

44.5

93.5

17.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

37.5

46.5

91

16

100

Change

-0.5

+2

-2.5pts

-1.5

Queensland

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

32

52

80

16

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

30.5

49.5

81

20

100

Change

-1.5

-2.5

+1pt

+4

WA

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

44.5

40.5

104

15

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

43.5

46

97.5

10.5

100

Change

-1

+5.5

-6.5pts

-4.5

SA

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

48

32

116

20

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

39

44

95

17

100

Change

-9

+12

-21pts

-3

Tasmania

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

31

53

78

16

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

25.5

53

72.5

21.5

100

Change

-5.5

-

-5.5pts

+1.5


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

Gender

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

Women

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

36

46.5

89.5

17.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

32.5

49

83.5

18.5

100

Change

-3.5

+2.5

-6pts

+1

Men

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

38

44

94

18

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

42

43.5

98.5

14.5

100

Change

+4

-0.5

+4.5pts

-3.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

Age

Right Direction

Wrong Direction

Government Confidence Rating

Can’t say

Total

%

%

GCR

%

%

18-34

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

38.5

41.5

97

20

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

42

35

107

23

100

Change

3.5

-6.5

+10pts

+3

35-49

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

41.5

41

100.5

17.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

40

42.5

97.5

17.5

100

Change

-1.5

+1.5

-3pts

-

50-64

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

32

52.5

79.5

15.5

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

33

56

77

11

100

Change

+1

+3.5

-2.5pts

-4.5

65+

February 2/3 & 9/10, 2019

36

47

89

17

100

February 16/17 & 23/24, 2019

34.5

50

84.5

15.5

100

Change

-1.5

+3

-4.5pts

-1.5


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093