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New Zealanders more optimistic about 2019 than Aussies

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand telephone, SMS and web surveys in New Zealand 1989-2018 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?”
A special Roy Morgan New Zealand survey taken in mid-December shows a majority (51%) of New Zealanders think 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018. Only 14% say 2019 will be ‘worse’, 27% expect 2019 will be ‘the same’ as 2018 and 8% don’t know.

This year’s results are similar to a year ago when 53% of New Zealanders said 2018 would be ‘better’ than 2018 and New Zealanders are again more optimistic about the year ahead than their Australian counterparts. Just under half of Australians (44%) expect 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018. See here for more details on the Australian results.

This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)


Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand telephone, SMS and web surveys in New Zealand 1989-2018 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?” 

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’


Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Women in New Zealand are more optimistic than men with 54% of women expecting a ‘better’ 2019 than 2018 compared to 49% of men.

Analysing the results by age shows those aged under 50 are all very optimistic about 2019 including 53% of 18-24yr olds, 60% of 25-34yr olds and 53% of 35-49yr olds that expect 2019 to be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 41% of those aged 50+.

Total

NZ

Gender

Age

Total

Australia

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

51

49

54

53

60

53

41

44

Same

27

28

26

22

25

25

33

32

Worse

14

18

10

7

9

14

22

14

Don’t know

8

5

10

18

6

8

4

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Analysis by Region – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’


Source: This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Analysing by region shows Auckland is the most confident of New Zealand’s major cities with 55% saying 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 50% in the Canterbury region around Christchurch and 45% in New Zealand’s capital of Wellington.

Nevertheless, New Zealand’s most optimistic region is the South Island outside Canterbury including the cities of Dunedin, Invercargill, Nelson and Queenstown in which 58% of respondents say 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018.

Region

Total

NZ

Auckland

Wellington

Other

North Island

Canterbury

Other

South Island

Total

Australia

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

51

55

45

48

50

58

44

Same

27

23

37

27

29

23

32

Worse

14

13

9

15

16

16

14

Don’t know

8

9

9

10

5

3

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says:

“A slim majority of New Zealanders (51%) expect 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 barely changed from a year ago when 53% said 2018 would be ‘better’ than 2017. The good news is that only 14% of New Zealanders say 2019 will be ‘worse’ than 2018.

“Women are more upbeat about the new year than men with 54% of women expecting 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 49% of men. Perhaps the successful example of leadership provided by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is having a positive impact on the confidence of New Zealand’s women more broadly.

“Once again New Zealanders are more positive about the year ahead than their counterparts across the Tasman with only 44% of Australians expecting 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018.

“Australians face a Federal Election this year which is likely to lead to a change of Government whereas New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is going from strength to strength with the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating finishing 2018 at 121.9 its highest since March 2018.”

Finding No. 7841 – This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders on December 13-14, 2018. They were asked “Do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?”

Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)

“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?”

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995-97*

1998

1999

2000

2001

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

56

41

33

46

46

61

n/a

62

56

62

65

Same

16

17

29

34

42

27

n/a

22

34

32

24

Worse

28

42

38

20

12

12

n/a

16

10

6

11

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*This survey wasn’t conducted between 1995-1997.

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010-16*

2017

2018

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Better

63

59

60

59

65

57

44

73

n/a

53

51

Same

23

27

27

22

22

24

16

12

n/a

21

27

Worse

14

14

13

19

13

19

40

15

n/a

26

14

Don’t know

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

8

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*This survey wasn’t conducted between 2010-2016.

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2