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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovers to 114.6

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,096 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend October 27/28, 2018.
After last week’s sharp fall, ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence recovered by 2%, regaining a third of last week’s decline. Four of the five subindices were positive.

  • Households’ perceptions of current financial conditions rose by 3.1% last week, while sentiment regarding the future financial situation rose by 1.5%.
  • Sentiment towards current economic conditions rose by 6.2%, more than recovering last week’s previous fall of 5.4%. Future economic conditions rose by 3.1%.
  • The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index fell by 2.5%. Four-week moving average inflation stabilised at 4.5%.

ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“There was welcome respite in the confidence index after the 6% fall the previous week. Confidence rose 2%, with four of the five sub-indices positive. The rise took the headline index back above its long-run average. Given the weakness in equity markets during the week, which saw the ASX 200 index fall more than 10% from its recent peak, the bounce in confidence was encouraging even if it was modest in the context of the prior week’s fall. The weekly read on inflation expectations more than reversed last week’s jump, suggesting that fears about rising petrol prices have subsided somewhat.

"The 'time to buy a household item' was the only confidence subindex registering negative growth, falling to its lowest level since May 2014. The weakness of this category is not surprising given the state of the housing market. There are a number of data releases this week that could impact sentiment, not least the Q3 CPI. The performance of equity markets may also drive sentiment."


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2