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Australians back at work in February, full-time employment hits record

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 570,780 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – February 2018 and includes 3,903 face-to-face interviews in February 2018.
The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for February shows:

  • The workforce is 13,538,000 comprised of employed and unemployed, up 190,000 on a year ago;

  • 12,228,000 Australians were employed in February – an increase of 133,000 over the past year equal to an average of just over 10,000 jobs added per month;

  • The increase in employment year on year was driven entirely by an increase in full-time employment which rose 249,000 to a record high 8,153,000 while part-time employment fell 116,000 to 4,075,000;

  • Analysing long-term trends shows February is generally a strong month for growth in full-time employment with full-time employment in February showing 12 month growth in 15 of the last 17 years as Australians return to work after the summer holidays;

  • 1.31 million Australians were unemployed (9.7% of the workforce); an increase of 57,000 (up 0.3%) on a year ago. In addition 1.21 million Australians (8.9% of the workforce) are now under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a rise of 73,000 in a year (up 0.4%);

  • Roy Morgan real unemployment figures of 9.7% for February are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for January 2018 of 5.5%.

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment & Under-employment - February 2018


Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, said the growth in full-time employment over the past year supports the strong start to 2018 for Consumer & Business Confidence:

“Today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates show overall employment growth of 133,000 jobs since February 2017 with the bulk of this jobs growth driven by increasing full-time employment, up 249,000 to a record high 8,153,000. In contrast part-time employment was down 116,000 to 4,075,000.

“The strong jobs performance over the past year supports the good start to 2018 made by both Roy Morgan Business Confidence which has had its best start to a year since 2014 averaging 121.8 in the first two months and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence with its best start to a year since 2013, averaging 120.0 for the first nine weeks of the year.

“Although the media in recent weeks and months has been filled with discussion about the personal relationships of various politicians and continuing questions about the citizenship status of several MPs and the resultant by-elections – including next week’s Batman by-election in Inner Northern Melbourne, the performance of the Australian economy has steadily improved driving full-time jobs growth and improved confidence for consumers and businesses alike.

“However, despite the positive signs, there is still a significant issue of unemployment and under-employment to tackle. Over 2.5 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) are now unemployed or under-employed. Total Australian unemployment and under-employment has now been above 2 million for well over two years – since September 2015.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 570,780 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – February 2018 and includes 3,903 face-to-face interviews in February 2018.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).


Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

Unemployed or
‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2016

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2016

2,496

19.1

1,362

10.4

639

723

1,134

8.7

Apr-Jun 2016

2,322

18.1

1,317

10.2

637

680

1,005

7.8

Jul-Sep 2016

2,296

17.8

1,266

9.8

574

692

1,030

8.0

Oct-Dec 2016

2,446

18.9

1,191

9.2

635

556

1,255

9.7

2017

Jan-Mar 2017

2,377

17.9

1,261

9.5

591

670

1,116

8.4

Apr-Jun 2017

2,525

19.0

1,234

9.3

607

627

1,291

9.7

Jul-Sep 2017

2,508

19.1

1,254

9.6

598

656

1,254

9.5

Oct-Dec 2017

2,442

18.5

1,275

9.7

659

616

1,167

8.8

Months

January 2017

2,402

17.9

1,295

9.7

634

661

1,107

8.2

February 2017

2,390

17.9

1,253

9.4

576

677

1,137

8.5

March 2017

2,340

17.7

1,236

9.3

563

673

1,104

8.4

April 2017

2,307

17.6

1,217

9.3

612

605

1,090

8.3

May 2017

2,622

20.0

1,284

9.8

659

625

1,338

10.2

June 2017

2,645

19.6

1,200

8.9

550

650

1,445

10.7

July 2017

2,462

18.8

1,236

9.4

568

668

1,226

9.4

August 2017

2,565

19.7

1,324

10.2

639

685

1,241

9.5

September 2017

2,498

18.9

1,202

9.1

586

616

1,296

9.8

October 2017

2,334

18.0

1,226

9.5

658

568

1,108

8.5

November 2017

2,394

18.2

1,288

9.8

624

664

1,106

8.4

December 2017

2,600

19.4

1,312

9.8

696

616

1,288

9.6

January 2018

2,590

19.3

1,219

9.1

642

577

1,371

10.2

February 2018

2,520

18.6

1,310

9.7

658

652

1,210

8.9

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.


For further information
:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2018)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2018)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2018)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2018)

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment - February 2018 - 9.7%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - December Quarter 2017 - 9.7%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2